U.S. LIQUIDITY RESEARCH
Global Dollar Liquidity
How dollars move through central-bank balance sheets, banks, offshore funding markets and global assets.
Global dollar liquidity is broader than the amount of money held inside the United States. It includes balance-sheet capacity, bank credit, offshore dollar funding and the ease with which institutions can refinance dollar liabilities.
The ULI framework measures a practical subset of this system. QLI tracks the quantity and credit-creation side; FLI tracks funding costs, credit stress, financial conditions and the dollar; ULI combines both into a regime indicator.
It should not be interpreted as a complete map of the Eurodollar system. Cross-border bank claims, FX-swap basis and international capital flows remain important extensions for future research.
MACRO TRADER LENS
How a macro trader can use this research
U.S. domestic liquidity improving does not automatically mean global dollar conditions are easing. Treat the thesis as stronger only when quantity, funding and market transmission point in the same direction.
Map the dollar impulse
Track Federal Reserve and Treasury flows, bank balance-sheet and credit creation, funding conditions and the broad dollar. Offshore dollar indicators remain an important extension rather than an input already captured in full.
Set the risk regime
Use the framework to decide whether the backdrop supports broader risk-taking, selective relative value or defensive positioning. It is a regime filter, not a mechanical entry signal.
Demand cross-market agreement
A constructive reading is more credible when the dollar is not surging, credit spreads are stable or tighter and risk-asset breadth confirms the liquidity impulse.
Respect offshore stress
Reduce conviction if offshore funding stress, a sharp dollar rise or bank balance-sheet contraction appears while the U.S. quantity signal still looks easy.
Built from traceable sources
Federal Reserve and FRED series, New York Fed funding data, U.S. Treasury cash balances and cross-asset market prices.
Research information only — not investment advice.